Determinantes sistêmicos e domésticos da política comercial externa brasileira: uma análise das estratégias de negociação comercial do Brasil (1995-2010)

Abstract

This study aims to understand and explain the Brazilian foreign trade policy between 1995 and 2010 taking into account its systemic and domestic determinants and focusing on trade negotiation strategies that involve the forum choice between the multilateral trade regime and the promotion of regional trade agreements in the period. To do so, the systemic determinants of foreign trade policy, understood as the environment that constrains, produces distributional effects and creates incentives for trading in the multilateral trade regime and/or in regional agreements, are identified and their influence on the Brazilian strategies of trade negotiations are examined. Furthermore, the domestic determinants of the Brazilian foreign trade policy are analyzed bearing in mind the political economy of that policy, that is, considering the intermediation of the state in the linkage of diverse interests of plural and multiple actors in the definition of the national interest, observed as contingencies, preferences and positions of these actors from 1995 to 2010. Among the non-state actors involved in the formulation of foreign policy strategies, the performances of the Brazilian Business Coalition (CEB) and the Brazilian Network for Peoples’ Integration (Rebrip) are highlighted and their interests on the forum choice analyzed. Finally, the work finishes with an integrated analysis of the systemic and the domestic determinants in their interaction with the dynamics of the trade negotiation strategy of Brazil between 1995 and 2010 and a future research agenda of studies on foreign trade policy is indicated.