Energy planning for Bahia in 2050: scenarios and discussion related to renewable energy for eletricity generation

Abstract

Energy planning is strategic and fundamental for any country or region that aims to ensure development and prosperity for its people. The Brazilian Electric Matrix needs to expand and diversify to ensure national energy security and simultaneously maintain its predominance in renewable sources. This is possible only through a coherent energy planning and appropriate public policies. This work is an exploratory research about the electricity sector in the State of Bahia and in the rest of Brazil. It aims to assess electricity supply/demand scenarios for 2050, focusing on the potential growth of concentrated generation based on wind, solar photovoltaic and biomass renewable sources in Bahia while considering sustainability issues. This study was based on the National Plans (PNEs), prepared by the Empresa de Pesquisa Energética – EPE (Energy Research Company), as well as on other technical documents that guide the Brazilian energy planning. Three national demand scenarios were proposed, being two among them based in pre-existing PNEs scenarios while the last one is a projection of the original scenario. Three supply scenarios were also designed for Bahia, based on the potential growth of the new renewable sources mentioned above. Finally, there was a data crossing between national demand scenarios and supply scenarios for Bahia, producing nine possible general scenarios. As results, eight general scenarios point to Bahia as a future net exporter of renewable energy against one single scenario pointing Bahia as a future net importer of electricity. Bahia can have socioeconomic gains with investments, the creation/maintenance of jobs, environmental benefits with reduction of GHG emissions; besides water savings liters for CHESF´s hydroelectric reservoirs.