O custo econômico do crime no estado da Bahia: uma análise de 2015 a 2021

Abstract

Between 2015 and 2021, the state of Bahia accounted for 12.32% of all homicides in Brazil, establishing itself as the most violent state in the country. This figure places Bahia significantly ahead of the other two states that make up Brazil’s top three: Rio de Janeiro (9.54%) and Pernambuco (7.36%), according to data from IPEA. Given this alarming scenario of violence, this study aims to measure the economic cost of crime in Bahia. Using a bottom-up methodology and, more specifically, the accounting method, the study calculated losses associated with expenditures on public and private security, insurance, medical costs, and loss of productive capacity, in addition to costs related to incarceration and the judicial system. The results indicate that, between 2015 and 2021, crime represented an average cost equivalent to approximately 4.74% of Bahia's GDP, which translates, in monetary terms, to nearly 16 billion reais. Additionally, it was observed that the increase in crime-related costs during this period (from 4.74% in 2015 to 4.93% in 2021) was mainly due to the rise in judicial expenses and the increase in the number of homicides, which further amplified the loss of productive capacity.