Valuation: avaliação econômica da empresa PetroRecôncavo S.A.

Abstract

This study aims to conduct an economic analysis of PetroRecôncavo S.A., a company in the oil and gas sector, listed in the Novo Mercado segment of the Brazilian stock exchange – B3, under the ticker RECV3. The valuation methodology was applied using the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. The company is one of the leading onshore oil and gas firms in Brazil, with a predominant presence in the Northeast region. The evaluation involved analyzing the company's financial statements for the years 2021, 2022, and 2023, along with projections for the following five years (2024 to 2028). The estimated economic value was R$ 10.23 per share as of December 31, 2023, which represented an 88% discount compared to the market price on the same date (R$ 19.32). To test the model’s sensitivity, two parameters were adjusted: WACC and variable cost. In the most pessimistic scenario, with higher WACC and variable cost, the estimated economic value per share was R$ 2.35. In the most optimistic scenario, with lower WACC and variable cost, the value was R$ 25.01, exceeding the market price.